In honor of Women's History Month, I'm going to spend the next week highlighting some of the best women poker pros alive. When you think of the best of the...
Holding Top Pair On A Straight Board
Everyone has warning bells go off in their heads when three to a straight are on board and they don’t have a reasonable shot at making a straight. But you might not know exactly how dangerous these boards can be. As it turns out, if you have top pair with no chance to improve to [...]
Everyone has warning bells go off in their heads when three to a straight are on board and they don’t have a reasonable shot at making a straight. But you might not know exactly how dangerous these boards can be. As it turns out, if you have top pair with no chance to improve to a straight yourself, you’d better watch out.
The first problem is that holding the made straight on the flop is not too hard to accomplish. That’s because there are 16 available combos of each of the straight hands. For instance, on a 987 board, you can have JT one of 16 ways, T6 one of 16 ways, and 65 one of 16 ways for 48 total made straight combos. (For comparison, your can have AA only 6 ways, and A9 only 12 ways.) Say your opponent gives you a lot of action on the flop, and you think she has either two pair, a set, or a made straight. And say you think your opponent wouldn’t play T6 offsuit… just suited. Under those circumstances, it’s 50-50 whether your opponent has the straight or not! She has 9 ways to make each two pair (27 total combos), 3 ways to make each set (9 combos), 16 ways to make the top or bottom end of the straight (32 combos), and 4 ways to make T6s. That makes 36 non-straight combos and 36 straight combos. Indeed, if you hold 65, the bottom end of the straight, you are only about 50-50 if you get all-in against an opponent who has either a straight, a set, or two pair (assuming that your opponent would play only the suited version of T6). You can hold a straight and not even be a favorite when you get all the money in on the flop!
The second thing that’s dangerous about straight boards is that when you’re ahead, often you’re not very far ahead, but when you’re behind, you’re sometimes drawing nearly dead. Say you have AT on a T98 board. If your opponent has something like J9 with a backdoor flush draw, you are a miniscule 50.5-49.5 favorite. But if your opponent has 76 then you’re a 95.5-4.5 dog. So even if your opponent’s range is dominated by weaker pairs and draws, sometimes you still won’t be the overall favorite because the times that you’re beaten, you’re crushed.
For instance, say your opponent is extremely loose and aggressive. He plays a ton of hands preflop, and he’s willing to get it all-in on the flop with draws, weaker pairs… all sorts of things. You’re still not a big favorite with just top pair.
For instance, say you have KT on a T98 two flush board. Your opponent bets in a way that challenges you to get all the money in. He’s crazy, so he’d do that with all sorts of hands: Any straight, set, or two pair, any jack, any ten, and any pair with a queen or higher kicker. Also any flush draw, any pair with a 7 kicker (including 77), and some pairs with 6 kickers. That’s a ton of hands, many of which your top pair/good kicker is beating. But even against that crazy loose range, it turns out that you’re only a 51-49 favorite. If your opponent is even remotely tighter, then if he starts jamming the flop, you’re probably in rough shape.
The third problem, at least in no-limit, is that so many scary cards can come, and you’re ill-equipped to deal with any of them. Say you’re against that crazy loose-aggressive player. As a 51-49 favorite, you’d be fine to get all the money in on the flop. But if you don’t get all the money in, then you could have some real problems on the turn if a scary card comes (and more than half the deck is scary). If you’re in position, it’s bad enough, but if you’re out of position, forget it. You’re in real trouble.
So what’s the conclusion? If you have a hand like AT or KT on a T98 board, you have quite a marginal holding. If your opponent shows any sign of interest in the pot, you should proceed cautiously. In no-limit, against most players, if you bet and your opponent raises a decent size, you should fold because your hand compares poorly against your opponent’s range. Often, despite the large danger of getting drawn out on, you should simply check the hand on the flop and hope a deuce rolls off on the turn. If that happens, you’ll be in significantly stronger shape against your opponents’ ranges, and you can safely put some action in. If a bad card comes, oh well. You didn’t have much hand to begin with.
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